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News Analysis: Lebanon still needs consensus to fill presidential vacuum despite setbacks

Source: Xinhua   2016-10-21 19:47:47

by Salah Takieddine

BEIRUT, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) -- After 45 failed sessions to elect an incumbent president in Lebanon, former prime minister Saad Hariri broke the deadlock Thursday by endorsing Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun to the presidency.

But the move still faces significant opposition and the consensus needed for a final solution to the presidential vacuum is not yet met.

Hariri, who declared that the decision "stems from the need to protect Lebanon, the political system, the state and the people," used to endorsed the candidacy of the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to the presidency.

However, last year, Hariri retreated from backing Geagea and launched an initiative to elect al-Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, a personal close friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in an effort to end the vacuum.

But this move was strongly opposed by Hezbollah, and also Geagea, who suddenly broke an agreement with Aoun and announced backing his candidacy.

Aoun, a staunch ally of Hezbollah, was a candidate for the presidency supported by the March 8 camp that includes all the allies of the Syria's Assad regime, while Samir Geagea is endorsed by the March 14 camp backed by the West and Saudi Arabia.

Also, the centrist Democratic Gathering of MP Walid Jumblatt announced the candidacy of its member MP Henri Helou.

The shifting in the political alliances hindered the election of a new president for two years and four months now, but with Hariri endorsing Aoun, the road for the former army General to be elected president seem paved for the electoral session due Oct. 31.

Since May 25, 2014, Lebanon entered in a presidential vacuum following the end of the 6-year term of former president Michel Suleiman.

The Lebanese legislators failed to agree on electing an incumbent in all 45 electoral sessions called by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri because of insufficient constitutionally required quorum.

"However, many obstacles still need to be removed before seeing Aoun as president," a source from al-Mustaqbal Movement parliamentary bloc told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.

The source said that out of the 33 members of the parliamentary bloc presided by Hariri, there are about nine MPs who openly announced their rejection.

"There are many reservations regarding Aoun, particularly his relations with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran," the source said, adding that the nomination of Aoun and the backing of Hariri does not necessarily mean that he would be elected."

Rached Fayed, a political analyst, noted that the opposition of Speaker Berri to the election of Aoun could be "another obstacle that the leader of the FPM must address to secure his election."

Fayed said that "Berri's position cannot be ignored neither by Aoun nor by Hezbollah, and this means that the problem is now surely within the March 8 camp."

Berri received Aoun Thursday night at his residence and the outcome of the meeting did not seem to be promising for Aoun, who stated that "we are certainly seeking Speaker Berri's support in the presidential race but we respect his freedom in taking the decision he wants."

The parliamentary source stressed that "the outcome of the electoral session due at the end of the month is not clear yet and whether the quorum would be achieved or not."

According to the constitution, the required quorum for the electoral session is two thirds of the 128-seat parliament and the president should get in the first round two thirds of the votes and a simple majority in the following rounds.

The power sharing pact known as the National Pact stipulates that the president should be a Christian Maronite, the Speaker a Muslim Shiite and the Premier a Muslim Sunni.

Fayed believes that Aoun is a strong candidate with the largest Christian parliamentary bloc. But this does not mean that he is fully backed by all the Christians in Lebanon.

Hariri heads the largest parliamentary bloc in the house and is regarded as the most influential Sunni figure in the country, but not all the Sunnis are agreeing with him on Aoun, he said.

What's more, Berri with Hezbollah represents the largest Shiite sector of Lebanon. With him opposing Aoun, half of the Shiites are against Aoun, not to mention Jumblatt, the strongest Druze leader who, with MP Talal Erslan, represent most of the Druze community, both of them oppose Aoun.

The whole country is looking with hope that Oct. 31 would finally see an end to the presidential vacuum that risk the country, particularly with Lebanon hosting more than 1.1 million Syrian refugees.

Editor: Hou Qiang
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Xinhuanet

News Analysis: Lebanon still needs consensus to fill presidential vacuum despite setbacks

Source: Xinhua 2016-10-21 19:47:47
[Editor: huaxia]

by Salah Takieddine

BEIRUT, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) -- After 45 failed sessions to elect an incumbent president in Lebanon, former prime minister Saad Hariri broke the deadlock Thursday by endorsing Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun to the presidency.

But the move still faces significant opposition and the consensus needed for a final solution to the presidential vacuum is not yet met.

Hariri, who declared that the decision "stems from the need to protect Lebanon, the political system, the state and the people," used to endorsed the candidacy of the Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to the presidency.

However, last year, Hariri retreated from backing Geagea and launched an initiative to elect al-Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh, a personal close friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in an effort to end the vacuum.

But this move was strongly opposed by Hezbollah, and also Geagea, who suddenly broke an agreement with Aoun and announced backing his candidacy.

Aoun, a staunch ally of Hezbollah, was a candidate for the presidency supported by the March 8 camp that includes all the allies of the Syria's Assad regime, while Samir Geagea is endorsed by the March 14 camp backed by the West and Saudi Arabia.

Also, the centrist Democratic Gathering of MP Walid Jumblatt announced the candidacy of its member MP Henri Helou.

The shifting in the political alliances hindered the election of a new president for two years and four months now, but with Hariri endorsing Aoun, the road for the former army General to be elected president seem paved for the electoral session due Oct. 31.

Since May 25, 2014, Lebanon entered in a presidential vacuum following the end of the 6-year term of former president Michel Suleiman.

The Lebanese legislators failed to agree on electing an incumbent in all 45 electoral sessions called by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri because of insufficient constitutionally required quorum.

"However, many obstacles still need to be removed before seeing Aoun as president," a source from al-Mustaqbal Movement parliamentary bloc told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.

The source said that out of the 33 members of the parliamentary bloc presided by Hariri, there are about nine MPs who openly announced their rejection.

"There are many reservations regarding Aoun, particularly his relations with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran," the source said, adding that the nomination of Aoun and the backing of Hariri does not necessarily mean that he would be elected."

Rached Fayed, a political analyst, noted that the opposition of Speaker Berri to the election of Aoun could be "another obstacle that the leader of the FPM must address to secure his election."

Fayed said that "Berri's position cannot be ignored neither by Aoun nor by Hezbollah, and this means that the problem is now surely within the March 8 camp."

Berri received Aoun Thursday night at his residence and the outcome of the meeting did not seem to be promising for Aoun, who stated that "we are certainly seeking Speaker Berri's support in the presidential race but we respect his freedom in taking the decision he wants."

The parliamentary source stressed that "the outcome of the electoral session due at the end of the month is not clear yet and whether the quorum would be achieved or not."

According to the constitution, the required quorum for the electoral session is two thirds of the 128-seat parliament and the president should get in the first round two thirds of the votes and a simple majority in the following rounds.

The power sharing pact known as the National Pact stipulates that the president should be a Christian Maronite, the Speaker a Muslim Shiite and the Premier a Muslim Sunni.

Fayed believes that Aoun is a strong candidate with the largest Christian parliamentary bloc. But this does not mean that he is fully backed by all the Christians in Lebanon.

Hariri heads the largest parliamentary bloc in the house and is regarded as the most influential Sunni figure in the country, but not all the Sunnis are agreeing with him on Aoun, he said.

What's more, Berri with Hezbollah represents the largest Shiite sector of Lebanon. With him opposing Aoun, half of the Shiites are against Aoun, not to mention Jumblatt, the strongest Druze leader who, with MP Talal Erslan, represent most of the Druze community, both of them oppose Aoun.

The whole country is looking with hope that Oct. 31 would finally see an end to the presidential vacuum that risk the country, particularly with Lebanon hosting more than 1.1 million Syrian refugees.

[Editor: huaxia]
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