by Zheng Jianghua
BRUSSELS, May 14 (Xinhua)-- Washington is no longer seen by Europe as a beacon of stability, but rather a source of geostrategic and geo-economical unrest, a geopolitics specialist told Xinhua in a recent interview.
In the wake of Washington's decision to back out of the landmark Iran nuclear deal, Europe has realized that its geopolitical interests are not always compatible with that of the United States, said Dr. David Criekemans, an associate professor in International Relations at the University of Antwerp, Belgium.
Criekesmans is also a lecturer in geopolitics at the Geneva Institute of Geopolitical Studies, Switzerland.
Trump declared on May 8 in a televised speech that the United States would withdraw from the deal, a landmark agreement signed in July 2015 by Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus the European Union (EU) and Germany.
Trump claimed that the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), had failed to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons or supporting terrorism in the region.
According to Criekemans, the JCPOA, inked during President Barack Obama's time, is used by Washington as a geopolitical strategy to curb the power of Saudi Arabia, a longstanding ally of the United States and the archrival of Iran.
"By 2015, it had become clear that Riyadh had financed radical Sunni fighters in Syria, in an attempt to counter the growing Iranian influence in the region," said Criekemans. "It is exactly from that breeding ground that the Islamic State originated."
"The U.S. had started producing its own shale oil, effectively making Washington less depended on Riyadh. President Obama sought to constrain the Saudi destabilization in the region by striking a deal with Iran," he explained.
But Trump pursues an anti-Obama policy and reverses the geopolitical alliances in the region, Criekemans noted, underlining that Trump's decision to ditch the deal prompt a split in the Western alliance.
"Many European countries are rather more concerned about Saudi 'financing activities' of diverse radical Sunni groups and hence see Iran as a reliable ally for the future," He said, adding that Iran's demographic structure with a large portion of young generation makes it a "promising" ally.
Criekemans predicted that the geopolitics of energy in the region will soon all be about natural gas, of which Iran disposes of large supplies whereas Saudi Arabia does not.
"Once natural gas becomes dominant in western energy mixes, Saudi power in the region will sunset. From the perspective of the geopolitics of energy, Iran may well hold the future with its natural gas deposits," he said.
It's noteworthy that on the footstep of the Iran deal, a whopping number of European companies, including French energy giant Total, flocked to Iran to get a foothold.
Total resumed purchasing crude oil in Iran in 2016 and signed a 20-year, 4.8-billion-dollar contract with the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) in July 2017, for the development and production of phase 11 of the South Pars gas field.
However, Total could be sanctioned or fined by the United States, as Trump administration plans to reimpose sanctions within 90-120 days against Iran and foreign companies doing business with Tehran.
Trump administration's anticipated sanctions will hit European companies of other industry as well. An easy prey is airplane manufacturer Airbus, which in 2016 signed a contract with Iran Air for 100 aircraft, including 46 single-aisle and 54 wide-body jets.
Iran Air has taken delivery of its first new A330-200 in March 2017. However, the looming sanctions cast a shadow over the fate of the remaining delivery.
"Trump uses the interconnectedness of the international financial system to effectively implode the Iran deal while trying to prevent the U.S. from becoming isolated at the same time," said Criekemans.
Touching on the prospect of salvaging the nuclear deal, the expert struck a pessimistic tone. "Together with the other permanent members of the UN Security Council, the European countries should try to keep the deal alive, but the chances for success are very limited."
"In the new multipolar world-in-the-making, Washington is no longer seen to be a beacon of stability, but rather a source of geostrategic and geo-economical unrest," he said.
"Brussels' new geopolitical strategy will have to consist in conducting a new 'balance politics' with the other 'poles' in the multipolar system; Washington is slowly but certainly being degraded in the minds of European politicians into being 'only one of these poles'," he added.
