By Eric J. Lyman
ROME, May 14 (Xinhua) -- The political exile of Silvio Berlusconi, the dominant figure of the last generation of Italian politics, has ended. What happens next is anybody's guess.
The 81-year-old Berlusconi is a billionaire media tycoon who had four stints as Italian prime minister between 1994 and 2011, when he resigned amid personal scandal and with the country teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. Two years later, he was found guilty of tax fraud, a ruling that included a ban on public office until 2019.
On Saturday, an Italian tribunal ruled that ban over, opening the door -- at least legally -- to his running again for political office.
The court's dramatic reversal comes as parties struggle to come to an agreement on the next Italian government, more than two months after a March 4 general election that produced an inconclusive result.
Forza Italia, the party Berlusconi founded, finished a weak fourth in the vote, garnering support from 14 percent of the electorate. It was the worst showing ever.
"I think Berlusconi believes that the decline in support for Forza Italia is tied to the fact that he could not be a candidate and now that has changed and the party will rise up again," said Giovanni Orsina, a historian at Rome's LUISS University and the author of "Berlusconi and Italy: A Historical Interpretation".
"If Berlusconi really believes that, he will act upon that belief," Orsina said in an interview.
That could mean eventually running for a seat in Italy's Senate, where Berlusconi lost his seat in 2013, or in the European Parliament.
More significantly, Orsina said, it probably means Berlusconi will be a more forceful presence in any kind of political deal making something -- that likely makes leaders of other parties nervous.
Advanced talks between Luigi Di Maio, head of the anti-establishment Five-Star Movement, and uneasy Berlusconi ally Matteo Salvini, from the federalist Northern League, only started after Salvini dropped his insistence that Berlusconi and Forza Italia play a role in the new government.
"In the last election, Berlusconi knew his role was to be a behind-the-scenes 'king maker', someone who could not achieve power himself but who could have a say in who does take power," Flavio Chaiapponi, a political communications expert at the University of Pavia, told Xinhua.
"In the end, even that was not true. But now, he's a player again. How big of a player? We have to wait and see."
The tribunal's ruling most likely comes too late for Berlusconi to take on a new role in the current negotiations unless talks collapse and restart.
Regardless, Chaiapponi said the chances of Berlusconi heading an Italian government for a fifth time may have only increased by only the smallest degree.
"The chances that Berlusconi might become prime minister again one day may have gone from impossibility to a very, very extreme improbability," Chaiapponi said.
But what is clear is that despite his advanced age and a long legal history that includes charges as varied as paying an under-age girl for sex, bribery, and tax fraud, Berlusconi is not yet ready to retire.
"The consequences from this new ruling are probably only symbolic," Chaiapponi said. "But Berlusconi has proved he can use symbolism to his advantage."
