Spotlight: Russia, Turkey deal expected to put offensive in Idlib on hold

Source: Xinhua| 2018-09-19 02:35:12|Editor: Liangyu
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ANKARA, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- Russia and Turkey struck a deal on Monday to create a "demilitarized zone" on the borders of Idlib that appears to put a significant Syrian regime's offensive on hold for now, said analysts.

The memorandum of understanding will see the creation of a buffer zone some 15-20 km around the frontlines of the northwestern province of Idlib, patrolled by Russian and Turkish troops. Radical rebel groups who currently occupy those areas will be forced to withdraw by Oct. 15.

"We will prevent a humanitarian tragedy which could happen as a result of military action," Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after four hours of talks in Sochi with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

The deal came as a surprise as leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran held a three-way summit recently in Teheran which ended with no clear answers to the Syrian conflict.

Analysts praised Turkey's diplomatic efforts seeming to avert, at least for now, a crisis which would have caused devastating effects on millions of civilians.

"This is indeed a relief ... For now this agreement, which is the fruit of diplomacy, seems to avert a big humanitarian crisis," said a western diplomatic source to Xinhua on the condition of anonymity.

However, he added that "concrete results have to be seen on the ground" in the coming days and intense dialogues are still needed between the parties involved in the Syrian war to make the deal viable.

Idlib, a strategic province that borders Turkey and hosts some 3 million people, is the last major stronghold still controlled by rebels. A part of it is held by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), considered as a terrorist movement by Turkey, Russia and the United States.

Now, Russia and Turkey say that they will work to remove the HTS from Idlib.

Retaking Idlib where Turkey backs a number of rebel groups and has a dozen military observation posts with several hundred troops and humanitarian workers could spell victory for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

But it would also unleash the century's worst humanitarian disaster for the region's inhabitants as Turkey has said that it would not be able to accept more refugees which would add to the 3.5 million Syrians that the country, faced with a financial crisis, is already harboring.

The United Nations said more than 30,000 people have already been displaced inside Syria by air strikes on Idlib in recent weeks.

Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalin stressed Tuesday on Twitter that "Erdogan took diplomatic initiative to prevent a major humanitarian crisis in Idlib," underlining that the (Syrian) opposition will remain in areas where they already are.

Some analysts believe that while the agreement is a major breakthrough and solves problems for both Russia and Turkey, it will likely be seen as a setback for Damascus and its military supporter, Iran.

"The memorandum of understanding is satisfactory and a diplomatic victory for Moscow and Ankara, but it will not seen as such by Damascus and Teheran," said Oytun Orhan, a researcher at Ankara-based think tank ORSAM.

Assad has promised to recapture "every inch" of Syria and marked Idlib as the government's top priority.

"Turkey and Russia should be vigilant against any provocative move, but all in all the Sochi agreement has put on hold, I think permanently, a major offensive in Idlib," said Orhan.

The main challenge for Ankara, Orhan argued, would be to disarm "moderate forces" that it supports and aides in Idlib in order to eliminate reasons for al-Assad to attack the region.

In an editorial printed in the Wall Street Journal last week, the Turkish president called for an international operation to eliminate hardline factions in Idlib, warning that war in this province will only create "new hotbeds of terrorism."

The deal is also the culmination of the Turkish-Russian rapprochement amid a deteriorating partnership between NATO allies Turkey and the United States over rifts.

Washington has been largely absent from efforts to resolve the conflicts, in Idlib in particular and Syria in general.

However, U.S. officials welcomed the Sochi deal, hoping it will lead to a permanent cease-fire.

A State Department spokesperson told Turkish Daily Sabah that while the U.S. did not take part in negotiations, it was still encouraged by the step.

"The United States supports any credible efforts that prevent a resurgence of violence and protect civilians," said this official.

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