ROME, April 23 (Xinhua) -- Italy's largest political party is in the midst of a corruption scandal pitting it against its main partner just as the campaign for next month's European Parliament elections is heating up.
UNEASY COALITION PARTNERS
Deputy Transport Minister Armando Siri, a leading figure of the nationalist, anti-migrant League (Lega) Party, was put under investigation for corruption earlier this month. That elicited criticism from Luigi Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star Movement, who called on Siri to resign from his post. Matteo Salvini, head of the League, refused to consider the idea, sparking a war of words between the leaders of the two parties that support the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
Opinion polls show that the League is now the most popular party in Italy: the most recent survey, conducted by the research and consulting firm Ipsos, showed public support for the League at around 37 percent, with the Five Star Movement backed by just over 22 percent.
In last year's general election, the Five Star Movement won 33 percent of the vote, and the League finished with 17 percent.
The controversy over Siri is the most overtly political in a long series of standoffs between the uneasy coalition partners -- and it comes just a month before voters across Europe will go to the polls to select their representatives in the European Parliament.
Anti-establishment parties across Europe, including the League and the Five Star Movement, are expected to make big gains compared to the results that produced the current European Parliament back in 2014.
IMPACT ON GOV'T
Analysts told Xinhua the standoff over Siri is not expected to have a big impact on how the League and the Five Star Movement perform in next month's vote. However, it could change the makeup of the Conte government after the European Parliament vote.
"Supporters for both sides will see their party's stance on Siri as positive, so it's probably not going to impact on how they will vote in May," Luca Verzichelli, a political scientist with the University of Siena, told Xinhua. "But this problem does represent a risk for the coalition after the vote."
Alessandro Franzi, a political analyst and co-author of a book about League leader Salvini, said he saw two main outcomes from the election: either the two parties in the government will continue their uneasy partnership, or Salvini will make a bid for new elections to replace Conte as prime minister.
"I think the most likely outcome is that the government stays together, mostly because the leading figures lack the courage to force what would be a controversial collapse," Franzi said in an interview. "Conte will continue in his role as a notary, and the two parties will continue to have disparate priorities."
Verzichelli agreed that the Conte government would likely survive next month's vote. But he said that if the League outperforms the Five Star Movement, as expected, that could result in a "reshuffling" of the ministers to reflect the League's greater strength.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see the two main pro-European ministers -- finance and foreign affairs -- removed in favor of figures hand-picked by the League," Verzichelli said, referring to Finance Minister Giovanni Tria and Foreign Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi. "That would not be a good thing for Italy's already difficult relationship with the European Union."
