BERLIN, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- The switch to electrified mobility will endanger 410,000 jobs in Germany by 2030, according to a study published by the National Platform Future of Mobility (NPM) on Monday.
Most job cuts will occur at vehicle construction, according NPM. In the production of engines and transmissions, up to 88,000 jobs in Germany could be cut, partly caused by increases in productivity.
While a combustion engine typically consists of at least 1,200 parts, electric motors have much less individual components at around 200 parts. According to NPM, German workers directly employed in powertrain production will be more affected by job cuts than employees not directly involved in production or assembly.
Taking productivity increases into account, staffing requirements in powertrain production will decrease by 39 percent by 2030 compared to 2017. While the number of jobs in production will decrease by 41 percent, other jobs surrounding the production of vehicles will fall by 36 percent.
The sectors of mechanical and automotive engineering, production control systems, as well as in the metal industry also will require fewer workers, according to NPM. Job losses in Germany will be evenly distributed across all levels, due to their links with the automotive industry.
The study's calculations were based on plans by the German government to put 7 million to 10 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2030 in order to meet the EU climate protection targets in the transport sector.
According to the managing director Kurt-Christian Scheel of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), the assumption by NPM that up to 410,000 jobs could be lost in the coming years is based on an "unrealistic extreme scenario."
Scheel criticized that NPM expected that only a small number of electric cars and battery cells will be produced in Germany by 2030 and that most electric vehicles will be imported from abroad. These assumptions were "not correct", commented Scheel.
German car manufacturers will triple their offer of electrified vehicles to over 150 models by 2023 with a large part of it produced in Germany, according to VDA president Scheel. However, for drive train production alone, the automotive association, like NPM, considered the reduction of 80,000 jobs will be realistic.
NPM is made up of experts from politics, business, trade unions, associations and research and was implemented by the German cabinet following a proposal of Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer in 2018.