U.S., European economists predict recession due to COVID-19 impact: report

Source: Xinhua| 2020-03-19 22:45:45|Editor: huaxia

Video: NYC street under the impact of COVID-19. (Xinhua/Zhang Mocheng)

"The contagion rate worries more than the mortality rate itself as it shuts down the whole economy to contain effects on the health system," said Elena Carletti of Bocconi University.

CHICAGO, March 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. and European economists are predicting a recession as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business published the results of 74 economists on the likelihood of a major recession.

A majority of respondents agreed a recession is likely, with a bigger 82-percent majority among European experts than a 62-percent among U.S. experts.

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, the United States, on March 18, 2020. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) said Wednesday it will temporarily close its trading floor and move to fully electronic trading because of the COVID-19 outbreak. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua)

"A sharp slowdown is likely; whether it will be persistent enough to rise to the level of a recession is not clear yet," commented Anil Kashyap of Chicago Booth.

Jean-Pierre Danthine of the Paris School of Economics is certain two quarters would register negative growth but further developments notably depends on policy reactions.

Stanford University's Kenneth Judd was among the few to disagree that a major recession is on the horizon.

"If it is like ordinary flu, then (the) economy should quickly recover. COVID-19 only threatens old and feeble economic expansions," said Judd.

A man does exercises at Montmartre in Paris, France, March 18, 2020. French President Emmanuel Macron on March 16 widened steps already taken to fight "a sanitary war" against the COVID-19 pandemic, ordering border closures, air traffic suspension, tougher restriction on movements and also penalties for offenders. Starting from Tuesday noon and for at least two weeks, people across French cities can only move out for reasons of work, health needs or shopping of necessities. (Xinhua/Gao Jing)

Among the majority who agreed a major recession is a likely consequence of the pandemic, several note the impact of the measures taken to contain the outbreak have already disrupted economic activities.

"The contagion rate worries more than the mortality rate itself as it shuts down the whole economy to contain effects on the health system," said Elena Carletti of Bocconi University.

Stemming the spread requires "stopping economic activity altogether," which is "a major supply shock," added Luigi Guiso of the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance.

"Even if (the) death rate is low, it will be because containment has been effective, and that will adversely affect aggregate supply and demand," said Patrick Honohan of Trinity College Dublin.

A man wearing a face mask is seen in Rome, Italy, on March 18, 2020. Numbers for both new deaths and new cures from Italy's COVID-19 outbreak released Wednesday are the highest on record, as health officials scramble to find enough doctors to confront the outbreak's spread. (Photo by Alberto Lingria/Xinhua)

Richard Schmalensee at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said, "'Major' might be a bit too strong, but the precautionary measures being taken in many countries will have a significant disruptive effect."

Global stock markets have suffered steep losses during the past two weeks. U.S. stocks triggered four circuit brakers to halt panic selling, European stock continued to plunge with little losses recovered, and major world currencies depreciated severely against the U.S. dollar as investors flew to stockpile safe haven assets.

While China starts to resume work and production with the peak of the outbreak having passed, elsewhere in the world a majority of companies are only now implementing work-from-home policies amid a surge in confirmed cases in such countries as Italy, Spain and the United States.

(Article by Xinhua Reporter Xu Jing)