BERLIN, April 6 (Xinhua) -- Global gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by between 0.5 and 3 percent in 2020, the Federation of German Industries (BDI) announced on Monday.
The last time that global economic output had fallen in the past 50 years was in 2009 when global GDP dropped by 1.7 percent, according to the BDI.
Assuming a one-time interruption of economic activities of no more than six weeks, BDI expected world trade to fall by 3 to 5 percent compared with the previous year.
"A strong recession in the United States, Europe and Japan is unavoidable this year," said BDI director general Joachim Lang. During the first and second quarters of 2020 in particular, there would be a "bitter slump" in economic activities.
"Whether and to what extent a recovery can be expected" in the second half of the year would depend mainly on the success of health policy measures or on any measures that may be required again in the second half of the year, BDI found.
According to BDI, China was on track to return to growth in the second quarter due to the "gradual normalization of public life and economic activity."
While GDP in the U.S. would decline by 2 to 4 percent and by 1 to 3 percent in Japan, BDI still expects growth of up to 2 percent in China.
In the European Union (EU), much would depend "on how quickly the tough health policy measures" in Italy, Spain, France, Germany and many smaller economies would take effect, the BDI noted.
GDP in the euro countries and in the EU was likely to decline by 3 to 5 percent in 2020, according to BDI. Germany's GDP is expected to decline by 3 to 6 percent in 2020.
