Fears of epidemic resurgence arise in France, haunting economic recovery

Source: Xinhua| 2020-07-10 03:24:16|Editor: huaxia

PARIS, July 9 (Xinhua) -- Nearly two months into lockdown exit, France now sees its population back with their rituals again, with all indicators suggesting the epidemic situation is well under control. However, fears of a resurgence of coronavirus epidemic linger, forcing the government to be ready to protect the fragile recovery of economic activities.

FEARS OF EPIDEMIC RESURGENCE

Since June, the average of daily deaths caused by the respiratory disease stood below 50, sharply down from 500 in early April. Hospitalization data maintained its long-running decline and daily confirmed infections remained well below 3,000, the limit set by the government for reimposing restriction on people's movement.

The government, however, repeatedly warned that the epidemic is not over.

As of Thursday, France has registered 29,979 COVID-19 deaths and 170,094 confirm infection cases. Some 333 clusters have been detected since mid-May.

In western city of Mayenne, the number of cases has increased fourfold in two weeks and six clusters have been detected, forcing the health authorities to launch a massive testing campaign targeting 300,000 people.

In a further sign of rising alert, analysis of the latest sewage water samples, a key indicator to gauge the virus circulation among the population, showed a slight resumption of the novel coronavirus in Great Paris between June 22 and 25.

"The virus continues to circulate, albeit much slower, much more controlled, but it is still here," said Jean-Francois Delfraissy, an immunologist and head of the scientific council that advises the French government on COVID-19.

"We do not see how we would avoid a virus resurgence in the northern hemisphere in autumn. So most likely a possible second wave is expected in October-November," he told Le Monde newspaper on Thursday.

Speaking to local broadcaster Europe 1, Prof. Eric Caumes, head of the infectious diseases department at the Pitie-Salpetriere hospital in Paris, echoed the same alert, calling on people to "be extremely vigilant because the virus circulates with low noise."

"We manage to control things, but we must to be very careful. We have never said that the epidemic was behind us. On the contrary, it is likely that the worst of the epidemic is still ahead of us," he warned.

NO GENERAL CONFINEMENT AGAIN

Cornered between the hammer of the disease risk and the anvil to put economy back on track as soon as possible, Prime Minister Jean Castex said the government has been working on a plan that would minimize the risks of a second wave of coronavirus and lessen its eventual economic fallout.

"We would not proceed to a general lockdown like in March, as that has terrible economic and human consequences. Any new lockdown would be targeted," he told BFMTV.

Castex, who had orchestrated the de-confinement plan, stressed "the need to preserve economic and social life" while implementing emergency measures to contain the epidemic resurgence.

Struggling to contain the epidemic, France imposed a lockdown from March 17 to May 11 to curb the spread of the virus. Only necessary journeys were allowed, all non-essential businesses were shut down, factories halted production and borders were closed.

As a result, the eurozone's second largest power suffered its sharpest contraction in the first half of the year since records began in 1949. The gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 17 percent in the second quarter after contracting 5.3 percent over the January-March period.

To Geoffroy Roux de Bezieux, head of Medef, the organization for entrepreneurs, "a local confinement would be temporarily bearable."

"We cannot afford to lockdown the country again because the economy will not recover. That would be something terrifying," he told RMC local radio.

"The priority is to consolidate the beginning of recovery and to revive the economy. The priority is to get businesses back on track. They have already resumed activities but it should be ensured that this recovery is rapid," he said.

Since mid-May the French economy "recovered significantly," the national statistics institute INSEE said in its economic outlook published on Wednesday.

Economic activities were operating at 12 percent below normal levels in June compared with a 32-percent decline in the first two weeks of lockdown in March. By the end of the year, activities would resume to between 1 and 6 percent below pre-crisis levels, according to INSEE.

It forecast French economy to rebound by 19 percent in the third quarter and 3 percent in the last three months of the year. For the whole year of 2020, it predicted a contraction of 9 percent, below the government forecast of 11 percent.

"This estimate is of course subject to many uncertainties linked to the health situation in France and in the world. In particular, a possible second epidemic wave on the national territory would necessarily slow down the recovery," INSEE noted. Enditem

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