Interview: New U.S. COVID-19 cases dropping, yet risk high for surge in fall, say experts

Source: Xinhua| 2020-08-26 03:17:36|Editor: huaxia

by Xinhua Writer Tan Jingjing

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- New COVID-19 daily cases in the United States have stayed below 50,000 for ten consecutive days up to Tuesday, while hospitalizations continued to drop since late July, according to data of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Nationwide, tests rose while cases fell, a pattern not seen since early spring. Leading experts told Xinhua it might indicate that COVID-19 transmission across the country may be decreasing. However, the risk is still high for increase in cases again in the fall if continued strict mitigation efforts are not in place.

Stanley Perlman, professor of microbiology and immunology at the University of Iowa, acknowledged the recent positive trend shows the country is starting to get the pandemic under control.

According to a latest report of The COVID Tracking Project, last week, for the first time in more than two months, all major COVID-19 metrics in the United States improved at the same time.

New cases have been falling for four weeks, and hospitalized patient figures are falling in every U.S. region except the Midwest, marking the most encouraging week in COVID-19 data since cases and hospitalizations plateaued in early June, according to the report.

Zhang Zuofeng, professor of epidemiology and associate dean for research with the school of public health at University of California, Los Angeles, told Xinhua currently southern states such as Florida and Texas, which saw summer surge in cases, have shown a clear downward trend, while the situation in California has also stabilized.

"The main reasons include mask mandate implemented by many states, large-scale contact tracing, increasing testing, strict social distancing and personal hygiene. All those efforts have significantly helped reduce the COVID-19 spread," Zhang said.

"I think we're seeing progress over the last four weeks, I hope that progress will continue, but I think none of us should turn away from the recognition that it's key each of us recognize we want to make sure COVID stops with us," said CDC Director Robert Redfield on Friday.

Amid positive trend at the national level, experts remain concerned that many Midwestern states are seeing cases rise.

There are more than 10 states reporting growing cases, based on a seven-day moving average to smooth out daily reporting, according to a CNBC analysis. Many of the states are in the Midwest, including Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, North Dakota and South Dakota.

"Some midwestern states never locked down and others opened up perhaps too early," Perlman told Xinhua, adding he fears that there will be an increase in cases everywhere in the fall.

As students across the United States are returning to campuses, at least 24 states are reporting positive cases of COVID-19 at colleges and universities.

This represents more than 3,300 cases of COVID-19 among students and staff, according to CNN report.

Many universities have suspended in-person instruction and shifted to online classes after reporting a rise in infections.

Zhang said back-to-school season poses great challenges to the country's epidemic control. Large gatherings of students on campus, in classrooms and restaurants, may make schools a hotbed for outbreaks.

If strong protective measures are not in place, there will be high risks of local outbreaks, he warned.

"The best way to prevent a surge is to keep doing the mitigation procedures, including wearing masks, that are helpful. A vaccine might help as well," Perlman told Xinhua. Enditem

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