by Peerzada Arshad Hamid
NEW DELHI, June 8 (Xinhua) -- In the wake of the first wave of COVID-19 in India as the economy started to pick up, a devastating second surge has caught the country unaware, leaving behind a trail of deaths.
Daily COVID-19 infections reached over 400,000 for a few days in May before trending downward, but the country continues to see an average of over 100,000 daily cases in June, according to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.
In response, the federal government ruled out the imposition of a national lockdown to contain the worsening situation, and authorised states to decide themselves. Several states have imposed night curfews, and either weekend or complete lockdowns.
Following these moves, economic activities have once again come to a standstill. With businesses shut and transportation off the roads, workers, especially laborers and daily wagers, saw themselves at the receiving end. Losses of life, employment and output were manifest.
BATTERED RURAL ECONOMY
Every year for the past 12 years, 38-year-old carpenter Pawan Kumar Singh has visited Indian-controlled Kashmir for work. After an unprecedented countrywide lockdown last year, Singh got stranded for over two months at his rented accommodations in Anantnag town, about 50 km south of Srinagar city, the summer capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir, and finally set on foot to reach home.
Workless, Singh had to dig into his savings, and once they waned he took a loan from a relative. Singh is living in penury with his family of seven, including his parents, wife and three children.
India's rural economy is composed of the farm and non-farm sectors. Money sent by migrant workers like Singh contributes to the non-farm economy made up of formal and informal employment in retail, construction, manufacturing, hospitality, education and transportation.
Tens of millions of workers like Singh had barely managed to financially recover from a nationwide shutdown, even before the second wave bore down on India. "This year," he said, "there was an expectation that things would be better but, alas, once again we are back at square one, stranded at the rented accommodation."
Singh, along with his co-workers and apprentices, reached Anantnag this March. For one month the group worked without interruption but were unable to reach the workplace as local authorities began to enforce restrictions.
Singh, hard-pressed, has to repay the loan of the previous year in addition to supporting his family. "I get calls from my family for the money almost every week," he said. "With no work at hand, how will I explain to them the situation?"
EVER-INCREASING DEBT
Driver Wasim Ahmad Malik was not given a salary last year because of COVID-19. In April, with a re-imposed local lockdown, vehicular traffic all but disappeared.
"Like the previous year again I haven't got any salary in the months of April and May," said Malik living in uptown Srinagar city. "The vehicle remained parked at my house and I haven't earned anything, so where from can I get a salary?"
Life for Malik had gone smoothly despite volatility in the restive region. "Here we used to have shutdowns and occasional restrictions, but still then we used to make enough earnings to sustain our livelihood and make savings," he said. "COVID-19 situation has badly hit our earnings."
Unemployment has been on the rise since March. Besides the job losses, wages have also decreased, leaving workers unable to properly feed families.
Vishal Sharma in Jammu city, the winter capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir, had taken a bank loan to purchase a passenger vehicle that he drives himself. The bank deducts an installment payment the first week of every month.
If the situation remains grim, Sharma fears his debts will rise and that he would lose his vehicle to the bank. He has no other assets.
"Last year following the COVID-19 lockdown, I became a defaulter on the loan as I was unable to earn. The interests began to pile up but there was nothing in my hands to avert the happenings," Sharma said. "The people from the bank began to call for installment. This year again I have faltered and was unable to pay the last two installments."
JOB LOSSES "WORRISOME"
India has lost more than 22 million jobs in April and May due to COVID-19 lockdowns, said Mahesh Vyas, chief of Mumbai-based Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, an independent think tank.
According to the center, May was also the fourth consecutive month of rising unemployment. The economic think tank described the job losses as "worrisome," adding that it is possible some jobs will come back quickly when the restrictions are eased.
Data on jobs, income, consumer sentiment and demand show the second wave has had a devastating impact on India's economy, especially for small businesses and the poor.
A report released by the country's largest state-owned bank, State Bank of India, recently predicted that a third wave in India could be as severe as the second, and it could last for an average duration of 98 days.
The report said the impact can be minimized by increasing vaccinations and improving health infrastructure.
The bank slashed the GDP growth estimates for financial year 2022 to 7.9 percent from the earlier projection of 10.4 percent, but it has not taken into account the possibility of a third wave in its analysis. Enditem
