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by Guo Yage, Wang Haiqing, Yu Shuaishuai
BEIJING, Dec. 26 (Xinhua) -- Year 2016 has seen many new faces in the global political arena, with some capturing worldwide attention even before they won a crucial vote to become the helmsman of a major country or a key multilateral organization.
They were propelled to the center stage amid growing anti-globalization sentiment, a populist surge, and concurring crises. How these prominent figures proceed to deliver their election pledges will hugely impact the world, for better or for worse, according to experts.
DONALD TRUMP: AMERICA FIRST
Trump has stunned the whole world when he won the 2016 U.S. presidential election. While his campaign trail has revealed an increasing turmoil in the United States, his moving into the White House next month will no doubt leave more uncertainties to this country, and the world at large.
A political outsider, he won the election by capitalizing on deepening discontent toward the ruling elites and portrayed himself as a champion of the public will.
The surging populism, anti-intellectualism, isolationism, trade protectionism and anti-globalization have all helped pave the way for Trump' s election victory. Yet there are constant doubts that Trump, who chanted "America First" throughout the campaign, will bring a better future for the United States.
According to analysts, Trump could not ease the widening wealth gap and rooted social problems, nor could he revive the U.S. economy though he promised to do so with a policy mix of fiscal measures, infrastructure spending and tax cuts.
The policy mix may add to a "long-term global debt crisis," Bill Gross, a renowned bond manager, wrote in a December newsletter titled "Red is the New Green" .
Trump' s promised tax cuts, including reducing taxes for businesses and the ultra wealthy Americans, will be "damaging" to the working class, Gross said.
Trump has also urged U.S. companies to stop outsourcing jobs overseas, and threatens possible financial penalties if they continue to do so.
Still, such policy will be "very difficult to bring certain jobs back, those low wage, low cost manufacturing jobs" as many U.S. manufacturing companies lack advantages in global competition, said Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Besides, if there is too much of an emphasis on traditional, blue-collar manufacturing without an eye on high-tech sector of the economy, the country will face more difficulties down the road as the global economy changes, said Dan Mahaffee, vice president of Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.
For the world, a future with President Trump is still rife with unpredictability. Nevertheless, a growing number of analysts agree that most of his foreign policies will be mercantilist.
"Many of the approaches to foreign policy are more likely to be transactional, and the Trump team will be looking for areas where the United States can exert leverage in negotiations on potentially acrimonious topics," Mahaffee said.
The upcoming U.S. president has also made known of his trade protectionist intentions. He already pronounced the death of TPP, and said he would choose to negotiate with each of his country' s partners for what he called "fair" trade pacts.
Trump threatens hefty tariffs on Chinese products if Beijing does not stop what he called "unfair trade practices."
There will be a risk which "would make the business climate in China and the U.S. much more difficult for companies operating in two countries," Prasad said.
According to Mahaffee, "U.S.-China relationship might become extremely transactional" with Trump's "The Art of the Deal," referring to a book Trump wrote in 1987.
David Dollar, senior fellow at John L. Thornton China Center, the Brookings Institution, said he hoped that the Trump administration sees that it's not in U.S. interests to start a full-scale trade war with China.
THERESA MAY: FORMIDABLE MISSION TO NEGOTIATE BREXIT
She was Britain' s longest serving home secretary in half a century, known for her tenacity on tackling thorny policy issues such as immigration.
She triumphed in the brief but intense contest to the British premiership, trusted with the task to negotiate Britain' s departure from the European Union (EU), despite that she had been supportive of David Cameron' s position to remain in the bloc.
Many political analysts and media commentators have noted the striking resemblance in character between May and Britain' s first female prime minister, Margret Thatcher, saying that May would be the new "iron lady."
Strong and steely she may be, May appeared to have achieved little regarding Brexit, except for her announcement in October that London would trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March next year to start a two-year process that will divorce Britain from the EU .
In the past five months since she became Britain' s head of government, she visited Berlin and Paris in clear attempt to win friendship of fellow European leaders and create a less hostile environment for Britain' s exit talks.
Judged by the responses of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, May failed to convince the other two parties of a dissolving EU Trio to soften their positions on Brexit, only to confirm earlier predictions that Germany and France won't let Britain have the pie and eat it - enjoying all the benefits of being a part of the European Common Market without shouldering its share of burden brought by an unprecedented influx of immigration into the bloc.
Outside Europe, she visited India to cement bilateral ties and lay the ground work for a post-Brexit FTA deal between the two countries.
It appeared that her charm offensive failed, as India' s mainstream media organizations during her visit hurled out headlines focusing on uncertainties surrounding the Brexit negotiations.
Uncertainties have dented Britain's growth prospects and diminished its hope for early arrangements leading to bilateral trade deals with countries outside EU.
"Brexit negotiation -- narrowly defined -- will be over in two years; but the creation of a post-Brexit environment... is going to take, certainly, far longer," British economist and writer Martin Wolf told Xinhua.
However, in an assessment of the complex road ahead for Britain as it seeks to create new economic and trade ties, Wolf warned that exit from the EU was merely the first step on the journey.
"We will be making up a new trade policy which will probably take us 20 years," said Wolf, who is the associate editor of the London-based daily newspaper Financial Times and also its chief economics commentator.
Britain' s decision to leave the EU also marked the start of a possible slide toward EU disintegration, which is sapping the global economy as well.
European integration is a plus factor for global economic growth and a reverse of the process would mean countries in other parts of the world have to talk one-on-one with European countries for cooperation, instead of talking to the whole bloc, said Song Chen, director of the Institute of European Studies affiliated with China' s Academy of Social Sciences.
Facing the difficult task to steer Britain away from the EU, May could at least take comfort in the fact that Trump, unlike his predecessor Barack Obama, openly expressed support to Brexit and has signaled intentions for closer ties with post-Brexit Britain.
ANTONIO GUTERRES: REFUGEE CRISIS AS PRIORITY
Antonio Guterres, former head of the UN refugee agency, topped all the six straw polls under the UN' s new selection process and won the 9th secretary general of the world body.
The consensus of the 193-member states in supporting him show that he is probably the best choice to address daunting challenges facing the world, such as the refugee crisis, a rise in unconventional security threats and trade protectionism.
The former Portuguese prime minister had been the head of the UN refugee agency UNHCR for 10 years up to 2015, and tackled some of the largest displacement crises across the world, particularly in Syria and Iraq.
Michael Williams, a former UN under secretary general, said that Guterres is "extremely well-qualified" for the post, not only because of his political savvy.
"In selecting him many members of the Security Council were not only recognizing that he had acquainted himself well in that post, but also acutely aware that migration and refugee issues are likely to continue to dominate the international agenda in the coming years," Williams wrote in an article published on the website of London-based think tank Chatham House.
Guterres has been in the thick of the Syrian refugee crisis in recent years. According to the UNHCR, over 1 million people fled to Europe in 2015 and half of them were Syrians escaping the war at home.
In an interview with Xinhua after his appointment, the secretary-general designate said he would do his best to address the conflicts worldwide, especially the one in Syria, vowing to place peace as the most pressing issue on his agenda.
"He will now be in a position not just to address the challenges of large-scale movements, but to take concrete actions to address the causes that have forced so many from their homes. It is a mighty task and expectations are high," said Elizabeth Ferris, a nonresident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the U.S. think tank Brookings, in an article published on the institution' s website.
Reform is another aspect the world is looking to Guterres. While vying for the UN top job, he told the TIME magazine in a July interview that "reform is a permanent attitude and coordination a permanent must."
"We look to him to efficiently and effectively manage the Secretariat and advance much needed reforms to enhance the UN's ability to face the challenges of this century," said British Ambassador to the UN Matthew Rycroft after Guterres' appointment.
Guterres has been planning so, as he told Xinhua during a visit to China in November that the UN is excessively bureaucratic and enormous efforts are needed to simplify procedures and decentralize decisions in order to realize quick deployment and to effectively address common challenges.
"I want the UN to be a UN that is more effective, more cost-effective, but more able to deliver to the people we care for all over the world, and a UN that is a platform for dialogue, for understanding and for respect of all cultures and all religions in the world," Guterres said.
