KHARTOUM, April 18 (Xinhua) -- A year into a brutal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan's economy lies in tatters, analysts warned.
"The war has exacerbated the many challenges already facing the Sudanese economy," said Mohamed Al-Nayer, an economics lecturer at the Africa International University, in a recent interview with Xinhua.
The industrial sector has been particularly hard-hit, with estimates suggesting 75 percent suffering damage or closure, largely concentrated in Khartoum State, the nation's industrial hub.
"The banking sector has also been crippled," Al-Nayer added, citing widespread closures and looting of financial institutions.
Commercial activity has likewise been stifled, with many shops and businesses destroyed in the fighting. The conflict has also severely hampered government revenue collection, with estimates suggesting a 60-70 percent decline due to disruptions in contested areas.
"Export and import flows have also been choked off," Al-Nayer noted, as production in key export regions has been disrupted.
The economic fallout is stark. Inflation has skyrocketed, unemployment has surged, and poverty rates have climbed even higher. The Sudanese pound has plummeted in value, with the exchange rate for 1 U.S. dollar reaching a staggering 1,400 Sudanese pounds on the black market, compared to 600 pounds before the war.
Abdul-Khaliq Mahjoub, a political science professor at Khartoum's Institute of Political Science, estimates the gross national product has shrunk by 40 percent and government revenue by 75 percent.
"The war has inflicted a heavy toll," Mahjoub said to Xinhua. "The price of basic necessities, like food, has skyrocketed."
The livestock sector, a vital part of the Sudanese economy, has been heavily impacted, with infrastructure destroyed and looting rampant. The World Bank predicts a 12 percent contraction in economic activity due to the conflict.
Gold production, a major export, has plummeted from 18 tonnes to a mere 2 tonnes in the past year. Similarly, the cultivated area has shrunk by 60 percent compared to previous years, raising concerns about food security in the coming months.
The ongoing conflict, which erupted on April 15, 2023, has also resulted in a staggering human cost. The UN estimates over 14,790 fatalities and a staggering 8.2 million people displaced internally or forced to flee the country.
The United Nations also reported that half of Sudan's population, roughly 25 million people, require humanitarian assistance, with nearly 18 million facing severe food insecurity. ■