German GDP declines for first time since 2015

Source: Xinhua| 2018-11-14 23:24:40|Editor: Mu Xuequan
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BERLIN, Nov. 14 (Xinhua) -- Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) declined for the first time in over three years during the third quarter (Q3) of 2018, figures published on Wednesday by the country's Federal Statistical Office (Destasis) show.

According to the Wiesbaden-based government agency, German GDP was 0.2 percent lower on a price- and seasonally-adjusted basis between July and October compared to Q2.

The surprising slip into negative growth territory was the first observed in the Eurozone's largest economy since Q1 2015 and came after having measured increases in the previous two quarters of 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent respectively.

Destasis reports that the fall in GDP in Q3 largely reflected a weakening of domestic growth impulses from foreign trade during the period. The statisticians cited preliminary estimates that exports declined, while imports continued to rise.

Private consumption was also down during the past three months. The development was partially offset by higher investment in equipment and construction, as well as a simultaneous uptick in government expenditure.

On an annual basis, price- and seasonally-adjusted GDP was still 1.1 percent higher in Q3 2018 than it had been in Q3 2017.

The latest quarterly output was contributed by 45 million inhabitants who were officially employed in Germany between July and October, marking an annual increase of 1.3 percent or 556,000 and a new record high in absolute numbers.

Commenting on the official figures published on Tuesday, the German central bank (Bundesbank) president Jens Weidmann argued that the 0.2 percent decline mainly reflected a short-term slump in automotive industry production.

"Upward and downward swings in the number cannot disguise the fact: The economic recovery in Germany and the Eurozone remains intact," Weidmann said. To the extent that German growth had generally begun to lose some steam in 2018, this was caused by businesses reaching the limits of their productive capacities and struggling to find qualified workers.

Speaking to Xinhua on Wednesday, Oliver Holtemoeller, Vice President and Head of Macroeconomics at the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), similarly attributed the decline in GDP in Q3 to problems in Germany's automotive sector which in turn resulted in weaker exports.

"A new certification process for newly-registered vehicles has created significant delays here. Due to the relatively high importance of automotive production in Germany, this is affecting the entire economic production," Holtemoeller explained.

The IWH vice president expressed confidence that certification-related issues experienced by carmakers would prove to be "temporary in nature". He noted that future-oriented economic indicators currently suggested that German GDP would rise significantly again in Q4.

Nevertheless, Holtemoeller warned that capacity bottlenecks made it unlikely that productive losses in the automotive industry in Q3 would be reserved again entirely during the final quarter of the year. The economy was also still exposed to risks stemming from developments in foreign trade which "remained high".

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