By Eric J. Lyman
ROME, Jan. 27 (Xinhua) -- Even as a long list of multi-lateral groups, investment banks, ratings agencies, and economists sour on the economic growth prospects for the Italian economy this year, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte remains optimistic.
Over the last few weeks, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Italy's National Statistics Institute, ratings agency Standard & Poor's, the European Commission, and the Bank of Italy have all reduced their predictions for economic growth in 2019. The most ambitious among them predicts the economy will grow just 0.6 percent compared to 2018.
Among individual economists, several even believe the economy could shrink this year, something that has not happened in Italy since 2013.
But Conte said he believes the government's prediction of 1.0-percent growth this year will prove too timid.
"Our reform strategy will bloom in the spring," Conte told attendees at the World Economic Summit in Davos, Switzerland, this week. "I am convinced that by the end of this year we will see an incredible acceleration of growth. You all will see that by the end of the year we will easily surpass, by a significant margin, the 1.0-percent growth target."
Conte went further, predicting that within "one or two years" the government he leads will completely reverse course for one of the slowest-growing economies in Europe.
Conte painted his strategy in broad strokes, stating that a thriving digital economy would convince many Italians who left their country in search work would return and help stimulate growth. He said a resolution of the long stand-off with the European Union over migrant policies would bolster confidence in the government, and that issues like the basic citizen's income and higher pension benefits -- seen as likely to increase the government's budget deficit in the short term -- would soon begin to spark economic growth.
Conte also said his government would empower citizens, improving consumer confidence.
"Financial stability is very important," Conte said, a reference to international markets unnerved by the policies of the prime minister's eight-month-old government. "But social stability and working for the needs of people" is even more important.
"We are radical, but that is because we want to bring power back to the people, where the constitution says it belongs," Conte said.
Analysts told Xinhua Conte's comments were at least as much of a public relations gesture as a strategy for an economic turnaround.
"Conte's main priority is probably to buy time with the public," Massimo Baldini, an economist and professor of finance at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, said in an interview. "The government has been in power since last June, and little has changed since then, at least in economic terms. He is basically saying, 'Don't give up on us.'"
Luca Verzichelli, a political scientist with the University of Siena, agreed.
"The two parties that support the government ran on the idea that they were not like normal politicians, that they would not do things in the normal way," Verzichelli told Xinhua, referring to the anti-establishment Five-Star Movement and the nationalist League. "So far, that plan isn't working too well. He needs to try to maintain public support."
In the near-term maintaining public support is essential ahead of the May 26 elections for European Parliament, Verzichelli said. If the Five-Star Movement and the League both face setbacks there, the Conte government would likely unravel.
Giampaolo Galli, a former member of parliament and vice-director of the Osservatorio dei Conti Pubblici (the Observatory of Public Accounts), a research institute, said that even if Conte's remarks help buy time for the government it would eventually have to produce concrete results.
"A government can promise big changes for a certain amount of time," Galli said in an interview. "After that time passes it is necessary to actually produce changes that leave people better off."
