ISTANBUL, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) -- Turkey's military involvement would add fuel to the fire rather than facilitate a political settlement in the Libyan civil war, Turkish analysts cautioned, as Ankara prepares to send troops to support the UN-recognized Tripoli government amid mixed signals from Tripoli.
Turkey will send troops in response to the Libyan government's call for help, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday, as Ankara signed security and military cooperation agreements as well as a controversial maritime boundary memorandum with Libya's UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) at the end of last month.
"Turkey's military involvement would only serve to prolong the internal conflict to the detriment of peace and stability in Libya," Faruk Logoglu, a former senior diplomat, told Xinhua.
The Libyan National Army (LNA), which fights the GNA headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, relaunched an attack earlier this month to capture the Libyan capital Tripoli.
"Whatever the outcome of the conflict in Libya, Turkey would at the end of the day be the loser," warned Logoglu.
"Even if Tripoli comes out on top, Turkey would have alienated large segments of the Libyan population by having taken sides," he said.
Amid reports of intensified fighting near Tripoli, the Turkish government is planning to get a mandate to send troops to Libya passed in parliament without delay, possibly next week.
Turkey's direct military involvement would lead to an escalation in fighting rather than boost chances for a political settlement, said Hasan Koni, an international relations analyst.
"Because in such a case, the countries backing the other side would respond by also increasing their military support," he told Xinhua.
Turkey and Qatar support the Tripoli-based GNA, while Russia, Egypt, France and the Gulf countries back the LNA forces led by Khalifa Haftar, which are based in eastern Libya.
According to press reports on Dec. 19, Egypt would provide Russian-made T-72 tanks and armored personnel carriers for the Haftar-led forces.
Turkey would derive no benefits by getting militarily involved in the Libyan conflict, but would simply become a part of the civil war, said Haldun Solmazturk, a former general in the Turkish army.
A military involvement in the conflict would stir up bad feelings toward Turkey, not only among the Libyans but also in the Arab world as a whole, he told Xinhua.
The Haftar-led forces recently threatened to sink Turkish vessels approaching Libya.
Ankara feels the al-Sarraj government must remain in power so that it can better protect its rights in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
Turkey found itself isolated in the region while Israel, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt jointly delimited their exclusive economic zones in a way Ankara calls unacceptable.
For Ankara, the maritime boundary deal with Libya, which Greece, Egypt and Libya's Tobruk-based elected parliament oppose, also represents a counter step to protect its rights in the eastern Mediterranean.
"You can't protect your national interests by withdrawing into your borders. You have to protect your allies," Omer Celik, spokesperson of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), said Saturday.
"If Haftar wins, then Turkey can forget about Libya until there is a change of government in Ankara," said Logoglu.
"Turkish troops in support of the UN-recognized government in Tripoli would only serve a useful purpose if at the same time Ankara opens a channel of communication with Haftar," he observed.
However, the analysts feel the AKP's close ties with the Islamist al-Sarraj government has also to do with ideological affinity.
The AKP, headed by President Erdogan, is known for its sympathy for Muslim Brotherhood ideology and has long been much criticized at home for pursuing an ideology-oriented foreign policy not in line with Turkey's national interests.
Instead of pursuing a sectarian-inspired policy, Turkey should work toward a negotiated peace deal between the warring factions in Libya, Logoglu said, adding that sending troops could drive a wedge between Ankara and Moscow.
Moscow said on Thursday that it condemns any outside interference in Libya's civil war.
Erdogan said the same day that Russia is present in the Libyan civil war with 2,000 mercenaries allegedly linked with Wagner, a Russian military company. He also criticized Moscow and others which are supporting Haftar whom he described as a warlord.
Russia may make Turkey pay for its military involvement in Libya in an indirect way, remarked Koni, who teaches at Istanbul Kultur University.
It is widely argued that Moscow would refrain from totally alienating Ankara as they are continuing the course of rapprochement while Turkish-U.S. ties are strained over Ankara's purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense system.
As Ankara hastens steps to send troops, mixed messages have started to come from the GNA about the deployment of Turkish troops in Libya.
According to German press reports on Saturday, Mohammed al Kablavi, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson of the GNA, had announced that the government is against the deployment of foreign troops on Libyan soil.
Kablavi's statement contradicts not only an earlier report revealing an official request by the Tripoli government for "air, ground and sea" military support from Ankara but also Ankara's recent remarks of similar content.
However, the GNA spokesperson's statement does not exclude the supply of weapons, which Turkey is known to have provided for the GNA for long.
Kablavi also reportedly called on Berlin to mediate for the civil war to end and persuade France not to back the Haftar-led forces linked with the Tobruk-based parliament.
Kablavi's call came at a time when Haftar's army closed in upon Tripoli, though some reports said the Haftar forces suffered significant losses in their offensive.
Libya has descended into chaos since the killing of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in an uprising in late 2011.
On Wednesday, President Erdogan paid a surprise visit to Tunisia for a possible cooperation in the Libyan conflict.
However, the office of Tunisian President Kais Saied said on Thursday that Tunisia would not be part of any alliance in Libya.
Ankara's direct military involvement, which would be a big burden on Turkey's ailing economy, may lead to a military stalemate in the civil war, stated Koni.
Solmazturk, who chairs the Incek debates at the Ankara-based 21st Century Turkey Institute, does not think the Turkish military could conduct such a large-scale operation to make for a stalemate without a base at its disposal in a neighboring country of Libya.
"Erdogan may have hoped to obtain a military base in Tunisia, but I don't expect Tunisia to accept that," he said.
