Robert Lawrence Kuhn, chairman of the Kuhn Foundation, speaks during an interview with Xinhua in Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, the United States, Oct. 15, 2018. (Xinhua)
"One need not be an economist to forecast that, once the novel coronavirus is contained, there will be 'snap back' or a 'make up' period of strong growth driven by pent-up demand," said Robert Kuhn.
NEW YORK, Feb. 21 (Xinhua) -- China's economy will bounce back once the novel coronavirus epidemic is contained, said a leading U.S. expert on China.
"One need not be an economist to forecast that, once the novel coronavirus is contained, there will be 'snap back' or a 'make up' period of strong growth driven by pent-up demand," Robert Kuhn, chairman of the Kuhn Foundation, told Xinhua via email on Wednesday.
"One need only review China's recent history to appreciate the potency and resiliency of Chinese workers, who are the foundation of China's historic transformation, and to recognize the depth and sophistication of China's industrial chain, which has developed dramatically in recent years and is the deepest and most comprehensive in the world," he said.
It is natural for the economy to suffer because consumption has been so dramatically suppressed, as the outbreak came at the worst time, right before the Chinese New Year -- Spring Festival, Kuhn said.
An express collector from a branch of China Post check the vegetables for delivery at a warehouse in Urumqi, northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Feb. 16, 2020. (Xinhua/Ding Lei)
"But there is no simple statement about the economic condition because the epidemic's impact is differential," he said.
Some industries are hit very hard, "but should expect to have a 'bounce' make-up" after the epidemic is over, like automotive, Kuhn said.
"I expect e-commerce to do very well, even to accelerate its market penetration, because people will feel more comfortable, at least for a while, shopping online and not going to public places," he said. "And once people get used to online shopping, the more permanent the change in behavior."
Kuhn said China's central government is enacting policies in support of companies that must navigate several hard months, providing special financings and abatements, particularly for small and medium-sized companies.
"These programs are in process but the fact that the government is addressing these concerns quickly already is a confidence boost," he said.
Robots working at a plant of Sany Heavy Industry in Changsha, central China's Hunan Province, Feb. 20, 2020.(Xinhua/Chen Zeguo)
There is concern about international companies, some of which have prior to the epidemic felt their supply chains threatened by international trade tensions, and the novel coronavirus may reinforce their risk-management sense to diversify their supply chains outside of China, Kuhn said.
"Here is where China can take pro-active steps in accelerating further reform and opening up of domestic markets, which will encourage international companies to remain committed to China and perhaps even to take advantage of new opportunities," he said. ■
