Chicago wheat futures rise over 1 pct weekly over global weather concern, weak export demand

Source: Xinhua| 2018-09-02 06:44:30|Editor: yan
Video PlayerClose

CHICAGO, Sept. 1 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural commodities closed mixed over the trading week which ended Aug. 31, with wheat futures rising over 1 percent amid ongoing concerns about major wheat exporter Russia's production and global weather worries.

The most active corn contract for December delivery rose 2.25 cents weekly, or 0.62 percent, to 3.65 U.S. dollars per bushel. December wheat delivery added 9 cents, or 1.68 percent, to 5.455 dollars per bushel. November soybeans dropped 11.75 cents, or 1.37 percent, to 8.435 dollars.

CBOT corn futures ended the week a bit higher, and like last year rallied sharply ahead of the first notice day against September contracts expiration.

Since 2016 there's been a strong seasonal trend for lasting bottoms to be scored on the final day of August. Excess on-farm supplies have been liquidated ahead of harvest and recall that the old crop U.S. corn balance sheet remains somewhat loose.

Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, with a strong demand-driven recovery to unfold in the next 90 days. There's evidence that final U.S. corn yield will be below 178 bushel per acre.

Weakness in Argentina's peso has produced better near-term farmer selling, but the Argentine producer will now shut off sales as a hedge against incredible inflation.

And otherwise, the U.S. Gulf market will have a near monopoly on corn exports during the autumn months.

Wheat futures rallied modestly this week, and analysts suggest that a seasonal bottom has formed. Rallies failed in August, but intermediate lows tend to be posted by early September.

The trade will be on high alert for Russian government interference following news this week, and a planned meeting with exporters there on Monday. Whether Russia moves to legislate a cap on exports in the near term is unknown but recall this is just one symptom of a very tight world wheat balance sheet.

Seasonal trends in both futures and cash markets move higher into late year. U.S. wheat export demand, while lacking currently, will be robust in late 2018/19.

Soybeans fell back to test the July lows and closed the week lower. U.S. soybean cash markets remain exceptionally weak with Midwest cash basis bids falling to historic levels as winding down of old crop marketing programs have put large supplies on the market.

Additionally, several private crop estimates put the U.S. soybean yield at more than 53 bushel per acre, and the U.S. Deportment of Agriculture is expected to follow through with a similar yield in the September Crop Report, to be released in two weeks.